Saturday, March 12, 2016

[DJIA] update

Back on March 7th Avi Gilburt wrote a bullish article on Trading Deck about the S+P 500.  He clearly sees this going higher.  Maybe he will end up being correct but I am not so convinced just yet.  I think that the downside risk still exists in this rising wedge chart because of CWT.  This looks like a WC wave, at least so far.  Avi knows nothing about CWT and would probably laugh at the audacity of anyone who thought they could build on RN Elliott's work.  I would not blame him for this because even with well over a year of air time in which CWT has become an integral part of my counts, there is still a lot of observation to be done before I can strictly define the conditions of W3 or WC. 

In my backlink on DJIA, I posted the chart below whose implication was that we needed one final bump of the top rail with perhaps a throwover before turning down.

Below is the current snapshot and model that I am working from.

Note that this peak would be 1-2-1-2 such that the next wave should be a 3rd wave downward.  In fact, a 3rd of 3rd.  If this begins to crash below the lower rail then the odds will favor a rapid trade into UVXY.

I also want to keep reminding people of the rounding function that both EWI and Avi have completely overlooked although EWI does expect the next wave to be down strongly.  This rounding model will not stand much more in the way of upward movement and so I suspect that if this is to hold then selling should begin sometime next week. 

Other possibilities remain but this one is my top model for right now.  Obviously it now has a very short leash on it which is the hallmark of any good and useful model.  A model that fails quickly but in an obvious way is worth nearly as much as one that appears to be working.

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