Saturday, March 5, 2016

Crunch time for my alternate [DJIA] model.

In the backlink I presented the mode below.

Current actual is per below.  Whereas the model allowed a move to 17100 as the alternate model, actual peak on Friday was 17062.  But we are now very close to the apex of the rising wedge and so if this does not gap down on Monday as shown by red then this model will likely bust.  The bulls and bears are playing it right to the edge.  While a gap down on Monday would fulfill the requirement to break down before the chart goes past the apex on the time scale, this chart has waited until the very end to set up for this.  This is not EW, this is experience. 

EWI thinks that we are in a 1-2, 1-2 situation which is of course just what it would take in order to break down per the model below, also taken from the backlink.  For the sake of caution and especially because I will be traveling, I did not pile into UVXY as I might otherwise have speculatively done with this setup. 


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