Sunday, March 27, 2016

[DSX] review

I want to ask you a favor.  Please try to think back to a time when any stock analyst that you ever read directly or even heard about was able to predict the exact day of the bottom of a stock.  OK, how about telling you within 3 days?  A week?  A month? 

And now if you have any names in mind, how many times had they posted or written about that sector before the actual bottom occurred?  Was it their first post ever?  And if so, did they have any reasoning or logic to it?  Or did they just ask you to believe them without ever telling you when you could stop believing.

Well, long time readers know that I I have been able to use my knowledge of Elliott waves to do this a good number of times right here on this blog.  Do all of my bottoming counts work out?  Of course not.  The herd movements are not to be fully understood by the minds of mortal men.  So whereas God can see everything, predict everything to perfection, the best we mortals can do is to improve our odds of being correct. 

But when someone uses a system that allows them to predict exact or nearly exact bottoms or tops over and over again, you have to wonder if they know something more than those who strut around on TV talking about stocks and the economy and are at best right 50% of the time.

Case in point:  I recently posted for the first time on Diana shipping.  Here's the backlink so you can check for yourself.  The chart model I provided in that post is reproduced below.

The post above was made on Monday Feb 15, 2016 after trading had closed (i.e. 1 trading day after the recent bottom had been put in).  Below is the actual starting from the all time bottom for DSX on Feb 12th.  The red guide arrows below match those provided above.

You have to admit, that is kind of lucky.  Again.

But that is now the past.  So the real question now is whether my bottoming call was right or whether something else might be playing out.  Do you have any ideas about this or does it pretty much just look like random crap?  I can tell you that I do have an idea of what will happen next and not just because of gut feel. 

Because I use a verifiable system called Elliott waves, my odds of being able to predict these herd movements are significantly higher than pretty much any other method in use today.  If anyone can show me a better system then I will gladly admit this in the blog once proof is provided. Needless to say I am doubtful that this is likely because I am very into stocks and economics and I would likely have happened across it by now.  But hey, I'm among the first to admit none of us knows everything.

If you want to know my insights regarding DSX and many other stocks, you know where the subscribe button is by now.

1 comment:

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