Tuesday, March 1, 2016

[IWM] update

Avi wrote recently that the Russell 2000 ETF (ticker IWM) is showing a classing C wave bottoming pattern.  It's about as clear a 5-3-5 as you can get.

But that which works for a-b-c also works for 1-2-3.  So we need to see what the chart is doing now.  Is it bouncing into a large wave 5 up or doing some kind of 4th wave?

While it's too early to tell, I don't know where Avi thinks bears are the only ones with their backs up against the wall.  I think it could go either way.  The one thing that makes me take a positive tack on it is that I think oil is ready to bounce.  Would it do so if stocks were falling?  I don't think there is a definitive answer to that.  I think we have to play wait and see here.  I will say that the economic data is getting worse, not better.  But the charts do not need to be in lock step with that data and oftentimes there are out of phase with each other.

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