Thursday, March 17, 2016

[JNUG] update

The model from the backlink is below along with the commentary, "The safe money gets out after this 5th is complete and then waits to see what the pullback is like.  If it is only to the $82 level in 3 waves then back in and set stops.  But if it is 5 waves down then run away screaming or even flip short into JDST."

Almost immediately after that post, the chart finished its motive wave and reversed.  I count 5 down that certainly exceeded the level of the prior 4th.  Folks, I don't know the future more than anyone else but I think you have to agree that I do have some kind of reasonable handle on the odds.  And the odds say that a real correction for something like JNUG will not just be to the 38.2 fib.  It will at least be to the 50 fib and more probably to the 61.8 fib.

So now here is your chance to swing like a pro.  The chart below is a zoomed, stretched version of the 60 minute chart.  The herd left itself the opening for this to be an a-b-c but that would be one heck of a C so I count it as a 3.  If you see one more lower low and then a 3 wave move to the level of the prior 4th, try swinging short into JDST once JNUG falls below red 5. Then, put stop loss in place on JDST at the level on JDST which corresponds to the bottom of red 5 on JNUG.  I'm not saying it will certainly work out for you but I am saying that if all these things play out as I've mentioned that the odds are high that my count is right.  I'm also saying that the next wave down would be a 3rd which means a very nice move up for the inverse of JNUG (i.e. JDST).  Additionally, I've given you a buy point and a stop loss point which are very tight if you play them right.

Please be sure to drop some cash in my tip jar if you play this and win.  I'm flying back home tonight and so I will not be online during Friday's trade.

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