Thursday, March 3, 2016

[UGAZ] bottom could have just been put in this AM.

I've been on UGAZ bottoming watch for some time now and I think we are close so I bought the AM dip and now I see it has done an AM reversal and is now printing green.  My stops are just below my AM buy in point.  I've lost about 10% in antes on this so far trying to catch the exact bottom but I know that's the way this game plays.  You have to put a few $10 coins in the slot machine if you want the $10000 jackpot.  All my near term losses on this will evaporate in a single trading session once the herd decides that natural gas cannot be the only natural resource which isn't catching a bid.

Still, that is a "drive for show" statement.  Nobody knows the future.  But we do know that the herd likes to cross the river at certain points historically.  So all we have to do is get there ahead of the herd and set up the guns.  If the herd then comes waltzing into our sight then we blast as many of the poor little critters as we can.  If they choose to skip the crossing point that we staked out at then the cost of that stake out is lost even though it will turn out to be minimal in the long run. 

This is the only strategy I have ever used with any success in trading and I think it is completely applicable due to the herding natures of the human species.

If you want to play it safe, wait for the top rail to be broken out of with gusto.  You will still be buying a huge dip IMO.  But do have a stop strategy because, like Sigfield and Roy, we are dealing with wild animals here and so the behavior sometimes appears chaotic even if it simply has an order that we are not smart enough or observant enough to understand.

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