Tuesday, March 1, 2016

[IWM] update

I was modeling a pullback in the backlink but instead we got a massive rally.  This leaves us with a major resistance line that has been broken out with gusto.  So now it really is crunch time for the markets.  They have to determine if the recent move was nothing more than a 5th wave rising wedge throwover into WC2 OR if this is a move up to the 50 fib or higher underway.

What would kill the longs now is to fall back into the channel and then, importantly, break below the lower rail pointed to by the blue arrow.  If that breaks down then the chances that the recent peak was WC2 skyrocket.  This here is trading in no man's land and the divergent in expert EW opinions on the count clearly show that.  EWI thinks that this is a corrective move while Avi suspects that a higher high is coming.

For now I'm going to side with EWI on the bearish side but with the requirement that this QUICKLY fall back below the top rail of the rising wedge and then break the lower rail down.  It really has to happen in the next 1-2 days or it will be beyond the tip of the wedge.  For the record, I am not happy calling a top here with this in between two big fib numbers.  So call it 60-40 red path vs something else.  If you are short here I would stop out fairly easily.

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