Monday, January 5, 2015

DJIA update - important near term UVXY trading juncture

The DJIA has put in what certainly must be counted as a motive wave which, it seems, should bottom today and then reverse to the level of the prior 4th into black 2 as shown.  If this model is correct, UVXY will be a bad place to be during that time.  Best to side step the vee 2nd and then come blasting back in for wave3 black 3 down which, I think, has a high chance of finally seeing my "500 point down day on the DJIA" which I have been predicting would signal the start of the new DJIA bear.

Note: this coming bottom might not be black 1.  It might just be 3 of 3 of 1.  The amount of retracement we see will tell the story but since I model w3 of what could easily be modeled the 5th wave down I will sell if it does an a-b-c up from the tip of that wedge and then 5 more small waves down.  Then I will sit back and see what kind of conviction the buy the dip crowd really has but I would hope for black 2 as shown.

Note: there is one count which can possibly show this whole thing as a big a-b-c but it is a low % affair.  Still, it can be counted with proper observation of the EW rules and thus it cannot be counted out as a possibility. 


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