Banking index [BKX] suggests shorts be cautious near term

I seem to remember having mentioned the BKX index (ticker in TDAmeritrade is $BKX.X) in my blog before but could not find a direct post on it.  In nay case the current chart is below.  From a high level the left chart might appear to be a 1-2-3-4 with 5 down in progress but that cannot be the case because blue 4 has overlapped blue 1.  So that count is busted.

On the right are two other alternate counts.  One uses the red numbering and the other uses pink.

The final count that I see as possible is below.  The two short term bullish counts upper right get the nod if BKX goes up just $1 from current levels.  If the lower count is right he market must gap down pretty hard soon in order to nullify the a-b-c look that it has right now.
The important part of all this is that I don't think that the broader markets will break down unless being led down by the banks.  After all, my overarching thesis that the US is running a global debt Ponzi centers around the moneychangers and their special ability to create credit from thin air. 

At the same time, look at AAPL shares today.  They posted the most profitable quarter in the history of any company in the stock market and they get a lousy 6 percent bump for their success and, so far at least, not even to a higher high. 

Yes, they could still extend their 5th of 5 wave perhaps even all the way up to $140 and I don't see how $COMPX goes down if AAPL is going up.  So now is the time to be vigilant and to keep reasonable stops.  Also, a mix of bets on the miners and the drillers along with UVXY could add a margin of safety for gamblers following my wave counts.