In recent posts I provided good day trading turning points for the juniors but it is now getting near "the big event" which will be the 3rd wave up in M+M. Right now the herd sees the rally and hates the fact that it did not see it coming. Now that the train seems to have "left the station", herd members are unsure as to whether it is a good time to jump in. They have to go by gut feel. You and I don't. We have a clear wave model to go by.
Here is the backlink that called today's likely rise. This model did not "guarantee" anything. If you are looking for guarantees, leave the stock market immediately because you won't find anything here except probabilities and trigger points. But you can improve your odds massively by learning how Elliott waves work and building your own models.
Note that that backlink models today's move as part of blue 5. The buy the dippers are just now beginning to show up for the juniors. They bought the 4th wave dip and now the shares need to suck in some more late comers before peaking into blue 5. With blue 5 completing so does black 1. That means the shares need a nice a-b-c retracement to shake out as many of the weak handed late buyers as possible. That dip could just fill the gap to $27.15 or it could blow through the gap down to the level of the prior 4th @ 26.50. It could in fact pull back further, down to the 61.8% fib of whatever the peak turns out to be.
So let it peak out into black 1 and then be patient looking for your entry point. Let it fall back a-b-c which should have a discernible 5-3-5 structure. Look for it to close gaps or hit fibs and then pile in but with stops in mind. The reason that you want to do this is that if this wave count is correct, the next wave up will be a 3rd wave and the move should be mighty mighty. Big gains in a short time. They beat the living crap out of the juniors but now the shorts must cover folks. When you see the weakest of the juniors like TRX beginning to catch a bid then you know that the traders are turning bullish. The most marginal players generally catch the bid later but when they do the moves can be lightening quick. TRX, for example, could double in a matter of 1-2 trading days from current levels based on short covering alone.
4 comments:
Hello Captain,
What are the chances that JNUG just finished a larger B of a corrective ABC, and is headed down to C.
Could your blue 3 be a 5 with that little spike being the 5?
From what I have seen, down 2s at the beginning have a tendency to retrace further than anticipated...
Cheers,
L.
The jnug chart is messed up in TD ameritrade so all numbers below are for GDXJ.
Given that yesterday's bottom was just about where the parallel channel should be I think we have to count the peak of the 12th as a 3rd, yesterday's low as a 4th and the current move as the 5th of 1.
Yes, as I have written countless times on this blog, 2nds of a major trend change are often deep vees but the don't have to be and we don't really need to care in advance. Simply wait for the coming peak (if it happens) and then wait for the expected 5-3-5 to play out and that will be [2].
As for odds, I think the best granularity you can get is "expect" or "good" or something like that. So I expect this to occur because of the parallelism guideline of EW where 1-3 are often parallel to 2-4. I personally am on the sidelines here waiting for the above setup. I could be all wrong and it could take off but I will know pretty quickly if that is going to be the case simply by observing the wave count.
I make it my business not to chase. If it doesn't come back to me, I really don't want it. There is always another trading setup going on somewhere.
Thank you,
Seems like your model is playing out, i count 4 of 5 in progress and one last leg up in gold...
1284$ could be it, it was a significant support level before the drop.
Cheers,
L.
Yeah L I would like to see a higher high on Monday and then a 3 wave decline back to ~$26. That would just make the trade so easy.
If you see that final bit of wave 5 play out on Monday to the point where you can count 5 waves up and wave 5 is about the same length as wave 1 (12/16-12/18) then swing into JDST with the proper stops of course and enjoy a nice short term profit ride. At the very least you should bank 30% but it could be much higher if the current wave is not 1 up but rather C. We will know about this soon enough because of the GLD chart. If this is just a C wave then GLD will likely top out around $123.80 and fill the gap. If it goes below $119 then it was most likely a C and lower lows are coming (Avi's 95-105 target).
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