I might have to change my DJIA count soon.

I know the markets are near a major top because of the sentiment readings of 95+% on a sustained basis.  Too many bulls for too long means tons of leverage is in play.

But "soon" doesn't make you money in fact "soon" is how people just watch their trading accounts collapse hoping that soon something beneficial will happen to their holdings.  

I've alluded several times on the possibility that the markets could be forming a 4th wave triangle and the more I look, the more it stinks.  This is in direct violation of what the conventional wisdom crowd is saying but I've been right when they have been wrong before so maybe history repeats this time. 

I don't know what is going to happen but here is what I think very well could happen and what to look for.  If this model is correct we should basically see 3 good sized waves that throw under the lower rail into E of 4.  It should be fine to hold UVXY until the chart comes breaking back up into the channel.  If that happens it would be a clear and undeniable sell signal for shorts including UVXY.  Playing these swings can bring nice profits so don't think of this as a bad thing.  If you see it coming in advance and play it right you can make serious bank.  That black 5 wave would not be ridiculously large - say 150-180 S+P points.  But that is enough to cause a lot of pain on UVXY so again, keep a close eye on this model and especially the bail out signal which would be the move back up into the channel.

Of course I could be wrong about this and everyone else could be right.  So look for a 3 wave move (5-3-5) that breaches the bottom and then breaks back in.