[S+P500] threat model.

I won't backlink to anything because this model is a tangent, a threat model for now but the more charts I look at, the more I'm trusting W3 over anything else.  The conventional wisdom count is still that we are ready to collapse into a 3rd wave down but I wonder if it turns out to be C of 4 as shown below.  For now the expectation is the same:  S+P really should head down quite hard to the 1920-1950 range.  If the conventional count is right then it will blow right through this level but if the W3 based threat model shown below is right then wave blue 4 will find support there and one more time the longs will hand the shorts their assess on a silver plate.  Just when everyone is getting super leveraged short and greedy, that's when this model would reverse.

So if you are playing UVXY and TVIX then please take heed here and take profits once you see 5 waves down.  Then just sit and watch for the bounce followed by the lower low that would invalidate this threat model.   Either that, or watch from the sideslines as TVIX and UVXY plummet into the tank once more to allow you to buy them on the cheap again after the real 5th is put in.  Again, in the mean time there is JNUG and the oil patch to play so don't shed a tear for UVXY and TVIX if this threat model plays out.

And don't say you weren't warned clearly of the possibility of this well in advance!  Do what it takes to preserve your precious capital!  Value keeping what you already have more than hoping to make something for nothing in this gambling casino we call the markets and you will never go far wrong.