DJIA wave 1 down is likely complete; rally expected tomorrow.

Here is my current model for the DJIA.  Since we are early in the down turn, there is a higher level of uncertainty but this count is valid and therefore has pretty good odds.  What should be the smoking gun here are those 5 waves off the bottom into green "a" and then the 5-3-5 pullback into green b.  So the odds indicate that tomorrow is a C of 2 rally and so it should be a strong one.  Any DJIA move back into the area of red 1 in the chart below should be treated with suspicion that the model is wrong and of course a lower low busts the model.

In a perfect world, the DJIA moves up 200 points from today's close as the buy the dippers pile back in for what they think will be more free money.  The first reversal point should be 17582.  When the waves get up there 1-2-3-4-5 I'm back into UVXY but with stops that take me out should the DJIA put in more that 5 small waves up.  They should be readable like those in the green "a" wave were.  Anything else should bring with it great caution.

USO has been trading in sympathy with the DJIA for now and so USO and RUSL should jump from the open tomorrow.   At some point we are going to have either the DJIA head back up past the expected 2nd wave stopping point while oil rallies OR we are going to have to see oil decouple from the Dow because the oil sell off looks very long in the tooth.  Time will tell but if the DJIA breaks out past the 38.2% fib and you are looking for something to replace your UVXY, consider RUSL because if it is about to enter a motive wave then it will be a 3rd wave which means rapid move up per unit time.