[$COMPX] update with [UVXY]

The model presented here is still intact but by no means confirmed.  First confirmation after breaking down more tomorrow would be an intraday reversal back up into the channel. Tomorrow [Friday] we will know a lot more but I expect the day to begin to the downside for the broader markets.  $COMPX broke down the lower rail in what could, so far, be considered E of 4.  It could undershoot that lower rail and send UVXY up a few bucks at the open but then you have to watch out for the reversal shown in red.  Use stops on UVXY to avoid eating the losses that would be associated with that 5th and final wave. 

If you see it happening, take solace in the fact that it is providing a great opportunity for a highly leveraged short play because triangles are guaranteed to be 4th waves.  Once that 5th wave is put in I will be laying into significant margin on UVXY because this setup is the highest odds reversal that is possible in EW.  Of course, it is important to count 5 waves up from the bottom in that case.

Below is the zoom in which is a continuation of this post.  I overlaid the prior post on top.  You can see that we got a gap where I was expecting it but not because the next wave down was blue 3 but rather because it was 3 of 5 of blue 1.  So I modified the count to reflect the new data but nothing much has changed yet.  The potential for a rapidly accelerating breakdown and in fact a 500 point day on the Dow exists.  But I would not count on it until the 4th wave HT model is invalidated by a move below the a wave above.

This wave count, taken as is with the blue 1 and 2 represent the conventional wisdom count and it calls for a collapse into the blue model above.  This is certainly easily possible.  But if I replace blue 1 with blue "a" and then blue 2 with blue "b" we can see how the above high level model red model could be counted using the detail wave count.  Note that the shape of the current wave could easily end up being WC, something that nobody else in the EW community even considers except me because, AFAIKT, I discovered it.

So let's see what it might look like from the UVXY side and what prompted me to hold overnight.  So we could see a gap up into 3 of 5 and and then a nice rally in the AM only to get a reversal and then a pullback as shown.  UVXY has been strong so I currently do not see it going back down to test the lower rail in this even but it certainly should not be ruled out.  So, if this works out as my model predicts, we will gap up, kiss $36 and I will bail like I was getting out of jail and then wait to see what happens on the pullback.  If the DJIA and other indices begin to plummet and they take out the 4th wave model then I'll be quite happy with that as well.  In that event we should be seeing 3rd of 3rd action here in UVXY.  So tomorrow or Monday we will get a short term inflection point.