Thursday, January 8, 2015

"Deep freeze sends bear market into hibernation"

This is what passes for "news" today.  The more I hear that kind of crap, the more I suspect that the DJIA is peaking into wave 2 and ready for the elevator shaft to open up below.  I don't know what "news"  will be blamed on it but the chart implies that we could likely get a big reversal downward as shown.  The news does nothing more than package up whatever happens day by day into a story and it assigns whatever reasoning pops into the head of the writer.  They don't know the fundamentals behind any of these moves.  They are just spewing the current herd collective mindset.

While these models are odds based and not a crystal ball of certainty, it would not surprise me to see today's AM gain reversed and close in the red.  The gap has now been filled and my target range on UVXY was hit and I counted 5 waves down so I am back into UVXY at $24.02.  I'll be monitoring this and if the DJIA continues up from this point I'll get stopped out of UVXY @ $23.80 and begin looking for another entry point.

If the DJIA goes up much past 17880, start to get concerned that the model is wrong.  As with any of the models, initially trust but always verify.  After all, I can always go back to what is working and buy the dip on RUSL if the UVXY model goes bust....


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