[DJIA] update

Here is the backlink and below is the current snapshot.  In short, while the chart might not seem to change very much, it has changed significantly IMO and the main element of this change is within the blue square.  If the recent break below the lower rail of the potential 4th wave HT were really e of 4 then I would not expect more than 1 regression below it.  In other words, the usual nature of the E wave is to bottom and then reverse with energy into wave 5.  But in this case the wave didn't just regress twice, it regressed 3 times. 

Even though it is currently above that lower support rail, I think this is just too much jacking around for this to be E of 4.   It more closely resembles 1 of 3 breaking below and then 2 of 3 pushing up near 17600 and now getting a wound up start for 3 of 3 tomorrow.  Because of my view, I held half a position overnight.  If this breaks down below that lower rail I am piling into UVXY not only into a full position but on as much margin as they will let me have for UVXY (this is one of those ETFs with special, limited margin allowances so it will not be very much margin, perhaps 130%.  I'll have to read the rules on it tomorrow before the open so I know how much I can sink into it.  Of course, all of the margin and some of the cash position will be held with tight stops on that lower rail.  As it falls below, I load up. If it rises back above, I bail out and not by real time decision but rather by virtue of stop market orders filled out just after I make the buy.

Bottom line: my chart model is telling me to sell this market off big time once that rail is broken.

The threat model is in purple.  If we go purple it should gap up at the open.  If we go orange it should likely gap down at the open.  Orange is the much higher odds play IMO.  However, if the chart can break out of the upsloping red line then it could be considered an inverse H+S and the distance from head to neckline suggests that it would, in that case likely be strong enough to break the top rail. 

Odds and triggers, folks, not certainties.  That is what EW charting is all about and those who pooh-pooh the chart do so because the don't understand this essential truth.  No chart tells you for sure what will happen tomorrow.  But play the odds long enough and sooner or later you will get a winning hand.