[GDXJ] update

Back link.  So we are now at crunch time with GDXJ.  This is super critical support not just for the next day but also for the longer term with respect to the EWI vs AG models for M+M.  Avi's target being 95-105 for GLD most likely requires it to begin breaking down right here, right now.  In other words, it requires the recent peak to be WC and not W3 as shown in the blue model below.  Nobody knows how this will turn out because the herd has left itself the option to go either way.  But I can tell you that if the wave breaks down this lower channel tomorrow especially with a gap as shown then you have to give the odds to Avi.  On the other hand, if it takes the blue path then I think Avi loses significant points and EWI's gains in odds. 

So while I can't predict the future I can say what is likely to happen based on the past using the EW model.  Because of this I saw the top coming on JNUG and went long JDST.  Today we only got a 3 wave a-b-c pullback in GDXJ that could not break the channel down, I sold JDST for a tidy short term profit as it fell out of its channel (execution price just over $10).  I did not swing long into JNUG because I did not want to assume the risk of an overnight gap down (red model above).

From a JDST perspective, I can also count things as shown below.  In other words $7.50 might have only be wave 3 and today's peak wave 4.  So if we don't gap down out of the GDXJ channel tomorrow AM then I think the odds favor JDST heading back down to the $2 range by the end of the month.  If that happens then by all means do not be shy!  Swing over and catch the bounce!

Watch the area of the red circle.  If JDST breaks out of that and puts in a higher high then the odds increase greatly that decline in JNUG is likely to be much bigger.