USO update

My most recent two posts (1)  (2) on oil were a bit premature in modeling the bottom and so I am falling back to an even earlier post in which I anticipated a trip to as low as $18.50.  Whether we actually hit bottom today or not, we are very close.  A major indicator of this was the capitulation selling in USO during the 3rd wave as shown in the snapshot below.  I mean, normal volume into September was only 1 mn shares per day!  Then we started getting momentary peaks to 10mn shares and then finally during what is certainly a 3rd wave bottoming it spiked to 20 million shares in a single trading session.  I know that was a 3rd because it was followed by a perfect 4th wave HT and so now we are in a 5th wave.  Could it possibly be 5 of 3?  Yes it could.  We will not know for sure until the bounce comes. But I currently model this as the 5th wave.  Could the recent action just be 3 of 5?  Yes it could.  The gap shown near the blue circle below was probably 3 of 3 of 5.  So there is some room for potential downside of even another dollar but I would hesitate to think that we get much more than that for this wave down.

WTIC oil cracked $50 today but I think it will soon reverse itself and power its way up to $70-$75.  In any case, here is the full wave count and note that the recent wave is the same vertical height now as wave blue 1.  Also, un-leveraged USO was down a sizable (for oil at least) 5.53% today while triple leveraged RUSL was "only" down 8.5% and it could not put in a lower low even though USO did.  I take that as bullish divergence and I believe that if RUSL can avoid a lower low for only 1-2 more trading days that it chance of hitting the $6 or lower level (which would be a normal 5th wave down) wane rapidly.  That thing closed in extended trading today at $15.55 and I could see it flying back above $25 in the blink of an eye.  In order for it to get more bearish it will have to just about gap down from the open tomorrow.  Nothing goes straight up or straight down and when RUSL catches a bid it is going to be a doozy IMO.