- Never enter a position unless you have an EW count that says a reversal of the prior trend is going to happen immediately.
- As soon as you enter the trade, enter the stop which must be executed if you get a lower lower than the last low which your model believed to be a bottom (or the top if you are shorting).
- Expect to lose a few for small money while winning big when you do win.
- Avoid buying or selling on gut feel, advice you heard from some stock salesman on CNBC, or based on the unknown and unknowable fantasy called "fundamentals" by those seeing to unload their essentially worthless shares on you.
- Understand that the Elliott wave principle is in fact science, not gut feel or magic (although it might sometimes seem like magic if you look at some of my calls in 2014...). This is the science of herd tracking with the herd in question being the human race.
The answer is that I don't know for sure but the evidence so far points to it being the bottom (5 of 5 of 5). First off, I can count it as such in the zoomed out chart as shown below. Importantly, wave 5 is now the same size as wave 1 in this model (shown by the blue verticals). Also, we have triangles and wedges in the expected locations (4ths and 3rds respectively).
So far the bounce is ambiguous in terms of USO itself. The oil patch players like CJES are a bit more clear in their counts. But in both cases, we only see a-b-c to the level of the prior 4th so far. I strongly suspect that the red path will be followed below. This could perform as shown below but it could also pull back into a deep vee wave 2 to form an inclining double bottom so DON'T CHASE. Wait for the a-b-c pullback and then you will be able to confidently buy in with low risk to your capital by setting tight stops just below your entry point.
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