GDXJ update

Reader "L" asked for an update relative to my prior GDXJ post.  In short, it seems like the model I provided there is holding pretty well,  Here is the chart from that post which I commented with "GDXJ is nearing a potential source of resistance with the gap fill shown.  Its chart has gone exponential so at the very least we must expect a 7-10% pullback of the kind you can see within the orange HT near the upper left corner."




Below is today's snapshot with the pullback I was referring to circled in red.  So far the pullback went as low as $25.90 which is almost exactly 7% before moving up again.  Note that this did not fill the gap which I believe is short term bullish.  If something fills the gap (especially an exact gap fill), and then pulls back, odds are that it is treated as resistance.  But if the chart sneaks up to it like this and then pulls back the next move is often a running start that blows past it (or fills it and then falls back...).  Note that the retracement fell just shy of the 38.2 fib which, if it holds is again bullish.  It means that the market performed the minimum acceptable pullback before wanting to surge forward again.  The odds say to just set your stops below today's low (whether GDXJ or JNUG) and go about your business.  If you want to use looser stops, the absolute lowest would be $24.95 because below that you are back into the range of wave 1.  That even is when swing traders will be buying JDST...

As for an exact count, it is not very clear right now and I would like more data but with what I have I will venture the following with the understanding that the chart simply has not expressed 5 clear waves up yet.  If this plays out as modeled, BOLO (threat) for green 5 to fill that gap and then fall back.  That could be a warning that this is a corrective rally rather than a new bull run. 

Keep in mind that GLD has not broken out the top rail that I mentioned here yet and that should be a concern in the short term.  It really needs to break out in the next day else I will be thinking it is creating a HT.  Miners will react to the downside if that happens!