GLD at incredibly important resistance.

I've made no secret of the fact that the past two months of GLD action have not looked at all motive to me.  They look corrective.  Still, this could be camouflage to cover the turn, especially if it is going to be a big run up from here.  But you can only camo so far before its time to shit or get off the pot and GLD is right there, right now.

When something bounces in a choppy looking manner and then only comes up to about the level of the prior 4th in what could easily be counted as a-b-c (blue oblong) and then heads down in what could be counted as motive (green oblong) and then pops back up to kiss the rail again from below like this, you just HAVE to keep a close eye on it.  This is a very typical declining double top setup.  Again, it could all just be for show in order to throw the hounds off the fox.  But UUP is looking very stretched and so I won't be surprised if it breaks down and sends GLD gapping up over that top rail.  That would be the momo trader buy signal.  That event would send alarm bells around the world, literally.  That event, followed by a higher high with a wave that looks motive would tell people that the gold breakout is real.

My take, and this is just opinion because I need a bit more data to make a real model call on it, is that this is going to gap up above that top rail and leave no doubt about a breakout.  Anything above $119.50 puts the chart into the range of the D wave of the HT and removes the already remote potential that it was wave 1 of a large 5 wave move down.