[USO] update

I continue to model that we are near a serious bottom for the oil patch.   Tuesday's sell off was just one more step there.  It is when we get down to the nitty gritty like this that the count gets more difficult.  5ths of 5 have always been a challenge for me.  The WTI count looks very close to a bottom whereas USO, below, might be 5 of 5 of [5] or just 1 of 5 of [5].  I would like to see all of [5] be as long as wave [1] was and this was what drove me to model a $14-$15 bottoming price in USO in this post.

I am not changing that USO count yet.  The 38.2 fib would be 17.30.  Note that I overdrew the red a-b-c so that it goes into the region of blue 1.  If that happens, the count is bust so it must fall short of that orange horizontal.

It is possible that the oil services companies bottom before the actual commodity does (bullish divergence).   So keep an eye on WTI and CJES because these are how I would play the oil bounce.  RUSL is more loosely coupled to oil than these two pure plays so RUSL might have to wait for the commodity to bottom before it finds a bottom.  Nobody really knows so the count is all we have to go on.