Here's the backlink. In short, I was early in calling the bottom of wave 1 of 3 for GE but my updated model shows wave 1of 3 was likely put in today. This update jibes with my model that the DJIA will rally tomorrow.
I think that GE is slightly ahead of the DJIA in count. The DJIA is only forming wave 2 of 1 right now whereas GE is forming 2 of 3. The GE chart is looking very, very bearish IMO. when wave 1 of 3 creates a lower low than the bottom of wave 1 (which is what I was trying to point out with the pink rectangle), it suggests a lot of insti selling pressure. The lower low takes away any chance of it being part of, for example, a larger HT wave. This chart is telling me that people want out.
If there ever was a good time to buy GE puts, now is it because we know that the big HT was wave 4 up, then we saw 5 waves up back above the upper rail and now we have seen wave 1, 2 and 1 of 3. So let GE rally for a day or two in order to get to the 38.2 fib or perhaps the 50 fib and then try to sneak into some out of the money if not deep out of the money 2016 or 2017 puts before the put sellers figure out that we are in a bear market.
Of course, the safe way to play options is to use UVXY/TVIX because of the liquidity. But I do like to have a core holding of some puts that cannot easily be traded If I think a major bear move is ahead of us.
When GE goes down, everything is going down.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
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