Oil is now trading below the low end of the target ($18.50) provided in my recent models so I'm reconsidering what the larger count is but in the short term I see the pressure easing up a bit.
For example, RUSL was only down 3.99% during normal trading while USO was down 3.94%. RUSL should move at a leveraged multiple of USO and this convergence suggests that a reversal is near. I do think it is notable that the leveraged RUSL has not found a lower low even though the underlying commodity, USO in this case, has. I suspect that gold's resurgence is making commodity shorts think about how to sneak out the back door. But something like RUSL is so thinly traded that there really is no sneaking if anyone is trading any real size.
It's possible that the big volume dip in mid December was really just the 3rd wave down and now we are in B of 4. Regardless, the shares should begin to move up strongly from here. In the near term, support is the lower grey line. I will stop out of RUSL below that (I'm holding overnight). The first resistance is the level of the prior 4th and then the gap @$20 (not marked but present nonetheless) and then the marked gap at $21 and then finally the peak of the last rally. If it can clear that top grey line I think will at the very least close the gap at $28.50.
Other less bullish counts are possible including the formation of a HT 4th wave which would run the shares up to ~$22 to form C of 4. Again, if that incline can't hold, just let them have the shares back. Keep throwing away the bad hands (as defined by EW trigger levels) and only playing the good ones and you will eventually catch a break.
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