Reality happened to match my model almost exactly. Just pure luck I guess.
Again. (FBO SCE)
In any case, the model is at crunch time. It will either do something very similar to the red model below or we have to suspect something is very wrong. This is a very critical time because I am modeling this as a 3rd of 3. As in Fred Flinstone's feet have been doing the yabba-dabba-dabba underneath his little stone wheeled car without it really moving and the next thing that MUST happen for this model to be valid is a rapid "DOO!". It will not work for this to meander upward at this point to do something, for example, like breaking out that top orange rail and I would put every short play I have, especially near term options that I have on Intel on IMMEDIATE liquidation watch. I'm not saying that this could not happen only to have the shares turn downward hard soon thereafter. But I am saying that it would be very, very unusual to the degree of making me strongly consider liquidating my near term options because folks, as GE goes so goes the entire stock market.
I think the odds are still on the short side for the reason shown below. I have a valid W3 and then a value 4th wave HT and then a valid 5th wave too. In addition, the chart has already moved below red 4 and that makes it very difficult for me to see how this could be a simple retracement that leads to a higher high.
Still, red 5 did not go to a higher high than W3 and I really wish it had done so because if it had the case for that being a large HT would be much stronger still. But we don't have to wonder and we don't have to worry. We simply have to WATCH CAREFULLY!. The trigger is clear, ignore it at your peril should it get tripped.
Again, if it looks like the longs are going to win the day for one higher high to Avi's target of S+P 2300 then let them have it! JNUG is a PERFECTLY fine play! As a rule I prefer to be long than short IFF the wave count allows for it and the JNUG count certainly does.
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