Friday, January 30, 2015

Blog [readership] update [PVIEW]

Backlink.

Most people probably think they have no interest in knowing how my readership is doing but I think there are two valuable reasons to follow it.

First, it shows the herd is turning.  I have been writing this blog for 5 years now and have been writing emails to family and friends on these same matters for 3 years before that when I warned of the coming 2007 crash a couple of months before it began.  It's only now that my writings are getting any attention at all even if it is still negligible in the big picture of what really popular blogs are doing in terms of numbers.  The can do in one or two days what has taken me years to achieve.  But I like the shape of my readership curve - it's going exponential now.  As one person likes what they see, they tell another person who tells another, and so on.  This is no mean feat given the two main things that I write about which are the state of the debt Ponzi and Elliott waves, both of which are viewed as "extreme" views by the herd.

IMO people don't read what they don't already agree with.  That exponential curve is telling me that more and more people are in agreement with my views.  It thus serves as a sort of mood barometer for me.  There is value in that.  It will help me see things coming when others have no clue.  It is essentially a simplistic form of big data.

Perhaps more interesting to most people is the second point which is that I claim to be able to derive an Elliott wave count from this graph which should help me predict the ebb and floe of readership, and thus of the mood.  In my previous readership update I provided a wave count at the 100k lifetime hits number (again, a pittance compared to popular blogs).  I recently surpassed 150k hits so it seems a good time for an update which you see below.  I had to stretch the vertical scale so that the side by side comparison would be easier to see.
If wave counts work for web page hits then it should provide additional evidence to my claimed observations regarding the broad applicability of this scientific principle known as the Elliott wave principle.   It will be very interesting to see how the waves play out in this matter and I will be sure to update in a couple of months but just look at that right hand chart.  5 up, 3 back, like clockwork.  This is not random folks and furthermore in this case there is no feedback mechanism for the herd to be looking at.  There is no trading computer that is causing it by algorithm.  If this can be shown to be reliable (and I am confident that it will be), it becomes strong evidence for my claims that EW is built into the fabric of how things work.  It is not a learned behavior or a reaction to circumstances because I am the only one who can see my readership stats in real time.  The readers are just behaving normally and their intrinsic behavior is thus revealed.  This kind of insight is beyond powerful folks because I have seen that EW applies to everything that I have ever seen in chart form, not just stocks and financial stuff.

For the record, the current 3rd wave could legally extend far higher than shown but I'm assuming that red 3 is not actually a new 1st wave that will extend the 3rd of 3rd into 5 subwaves of its own.  I thus picked a shortish wave size for 5 of 3 so that it would clearly not be longer than the 3rd of 3 as that would violate the EW principle by making that 3rd wave the shortest of the motive sequence.

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