Monday, January 5, 2015

JNUG update

Here's the backlink.  Before I get into it, I must say that I hate using the JNUG chart because TDAmeritrade got it all f-ed up after the reverse split.  There is no way JNUG has tripled already from the bottom but that is what the chart shows.  If you want the real deal, go to yahoo charts and you will see that after properly applying the reverse 10:1 split that the low for JNUG was actually ~$18, not the $11 value shown on this chart.  We just have to keep this in mind while the chart is playing out with the actual data and at some point soon it won't matter because it will far enough behind us as not to matter. But until then it it could lead to wave counting mistakes like that in blue below which I will discuss in a moment. 

So, here the prior chart from the backlink in which I pointed out that gap as being resistance.


And so we see that today it clearly was resistance.  On this f-ed up chart it counts like 5 up.  On the GDXJ chart it counts like 3 up.  It is very hard to know what to think about this because of those assholes at TDAmeritrade who can't even provide a truthful post split chart.  The timing of this cock up was interesting though - right at the bottom where it could cause the most confusion and leave the most people unsure about what to do next.

In any case, the gap is filled and it was resistance so expect a couple days of selling, perhaps to the lower rail of the pink box which would be blue 4.  If you want to play it safe, sell at the open tomorrow if it opens red and then if it ever goes to a higher high than today's peak, just buy back in.  Note: the M+M rally today is, to me bullish divergence for USO.  Gold and silver probably bottomed first but oil will follow at some point.  The gold:dollar ratio is nearly meaningless because the dollar is just a worthless piece of shit paper.  But oil is a real and still necessary commodity (it won't be in 30 years IMO) and so the gold:oil ratio will always revert to the mean.  At some point the dollar:gold ratio will go exponential as the dollar collapses with the rest of the world's worthless paper money but that won't be for some time yet.


No comments:

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More