USO update

Here is the backlink with model to bounce at ~$18.  I think the bounce has begun today.  We should expect to climb a wall of worry given the smack down oil has gotten with every pundit weighing in and throwing in the towel, etc.  We also have capitulation volume on the print.   It is also possible that the recent low was only the 3rd of 5 down so stops must be used below $18 (or the equivalent in RUSL which would be $14.50.  That would be a lower low in both cases.

Now let's talk scenarios.  If this was only 3 of 5 down, a 38.2% retracement would be 18.90 and a 50 fib bounce would be 19.19.  Or it could fill the gap at $20.

If this was 5 waves down but only 1 of 5 then the 50 fib would be a virtual gap fill at 19.89.

If this was 5 of a very large A wave then we are looking at a bounce to $40.  We will probably know the answer to some of these questions this week because oil is either going to turn back down when the DJIA turns back down OR it is going to find some reason / story to decouple from the DJIA such that stocks go down while commodities go up.