DJIA update: wave 2 not done yet...

Here is the back link in which I confidently expected a market rally today.  Well, the reality is that the price target from that model was hit pretty closely but the wave structure of the DJIA and of UVXY both indicate the same thing: wave two of the a-b-c retracement is not done yet.  So UVXY will get likely hit at tomorrow's open. The DJIA futures are now up 133 thus reinforcing that possibility.            

If I had held UVXY overnight (which I did not because I modeled that this DJIA bounce was not finished...), I would just sell the open and eat my short term losses and then let the DJIA finish out the C wave (C of 2).  That should appear as 5 more clear waves up by the DJIA.  Then it will be time to go back into UVXY with tight stops.  I was hoping for an AM reversal but the numerical distance from today's close to my target price of 17832 is 253 points and that is quite a lot to go up and then reverse on the same day.   So the whole day might be shot if not spanning into Friday.  Of course, stranger things have happened, especially if some "news" is released that the herd can latch onto as justification for making a decision that they were likely to make anyhow.

Be patient on this reversal folks because if the count is right then it will likely be a deep vee 2nd wave.  Note that there are other possible counts than shown but they are not my primary.  Still keep in mind that we just finished a 3rd on dec5th and then came a structure with a big wave right in the middle of it leading to black 4.  Maybe that is just A of 4 of an HT.  Again, not my first choice but we can't rule it out either.  If the current bounce goes up to or slightly past the 76.4 fib then the odds of this being an HT 4th go up significantly.  So let the wave play out and take each one at a time.  Long term wave count predictions are all good and nice money is made by trading the nearer term turns.  when doing TA, drive for show, putt for dough.