[USO] update

At the backlink I was modeling that the bottom was in and that we should break back up through resistance quickly per the model below.
b




Red (below), which says the recent pull back was nothing but a gap fill and a chance at a running start at the resistance line, is still primary.

However, because of the resistance seen at the lower rail as well as the wave count, I now have to be open to an alternate count (blue) which will become my primary count if oil does not begin moving up tomorrow AM.  That blue count could be expressed as an inverted owl but the worst case which is where blue 5= blue1 is shown below in the name of being conservative.

Folks, this is where a lot of luck is involved so pay attention.  It's one thing to play oil, its another to play oil related like VNR which moved up from $1.30 to $2.20 in 3 trading sessions.  In today's pullback it was down 20%.  These are staggering percentages!!  I suggest that if you got caught long recently and the the bottom dropped out on you and you were not using stops that you be very careful about selling here because even though it can go to a new low, that low should be the very bottom of this motive wave and a very large recovery rally, oil to $55-$60 is the most likely next move.   In other words, if you fucked up with your discipline on stops, don't get let off the train at the last stop because this train will be turning north and soon.  Maybe by the end of the month or maybe the first few days of Feb but soon enough.  Remember, volatility cuts both ways and we are a lot closer to a bottom than to a top.  VNR, GLNCY, ARP and the rest might all well BK before the deflationary crash is over but nothing goes straight up or straight down.  Remember the bank I made on MCP even after they filed a going concern notice?  Well none of the above are near that point but oil is near the bottom of a 3rd wave and so the expected vee recovery bounce should be huge for these tickers because nobody except Elliotticians believe that an oil bounce is coming, much less a massive vee.  Everyone else is freaking out about $10 and $20 oil as the new normal.  Resist your herding instinct and trust in the wave count.  I'm keeping a lot of powder dry in case USO does one final "fuck you longs" swoon per blue.  If that happens, all my M+M plays will get sold for a profit and I will pile more into the various oil patch players whose charts indicate that a bounce is coming.