[FCX] update

The model in the backlink went bust by triggering the stop loss level which I provided in that post.  Instead of telling people to hang on and everything will be OK, I said that if the trigger is tripped, sell.  People that used this technique got out for a very small % ante loss but those who thought they would just tough it out now have only about 1/3 their original capital.

So I have been watching FCX break down and I suspect that a major bottom was put in on Wed Jan 20th at a price of around $3.52.  I think it is now in the process of doing a deep vee 2nd wave.  After that it should find a new high well past $4.70.

Keep in mind that the fed doesn't want to start an energy default driven chain reaction in it banks.  Thus the fed told banks they don't have to mark their energy portfolios to market just recently.  Instead they should work with the indebted company to sell assets.  Well, asset sales in a down market isn't going to pay for the loans that bought those assets in an up market.  So banks have essentially been given permission to wait until oil bounces before worrying about trying to get their money back.  Said differently, we are still likely too early in the crisis for the likes of FCX to BK.  If the market becomes convinced of this then the share price will move up rapidly from these pre-BK levels.