[IBB] is the chart of social mood

A long time ago I wrote that a good indicator of social mood was the IBB (biotech ETF) chart.  With all the easy debt based money in the economy, well, anything was possible.  Boomers could all look forward to fantastic health and long life, all paid for by the young workers via the magick of Obamacare. 

And why shouldn't boomers be ecstatic about that?  If younger workers didn't want to participate in that, too bad.  They would be taxed into doing it.  If they didn't pay then eventually the government would come and take their stuff away and sell it off cheaply in order to satisfy the debts.  If the tax victim said it was unfair, a monkey court would issue a piece of paper saying yes it was fair and so younger workers should just shut up and take it.  And of course if they tried to physically stop anyone from taking the stuff that the government says they owed, well, they would be dealing with police attack dogs at that point and that is always a life threatening situation.

So yeah, boomers could be joyous and that's what the biotech mania chart is telling us.

But reality is now crashing home.  Obama will be out on his useless ass in just a couple of quarters and he will be most likely replaced with a conservative.  One of the first things that is going to fall is the Obamacare tax.  Boomers might not like it but young people cannot afford to support them AND bring up their own families.  Too many dependents already!

In any case, below is the top level model from the backlink.



I think the red bounce in the model above is complete and now we should see rapid downward acceleration.  Most of the crap going on in biotech is just either a scam/weird science or it will take far longer to bring to market than investors ever expected it to.  The odds of this becoming a mania chart are high because grand speculation is a liberal thing and conservatives will not support it.



It's like the LHC (Large Hadron Collider).  It has no economic value except what could come from the imagination.  The scientists there of course will always have another question, another experiment to perform because LHC is nothing more than a sandbox playground for elite academics.  They say "you never know what we will find unless we look for it".  This is true.  But the conservative point of view is that when I have a good reason to do it (other than being a socialist's wet dream) then I will do it knowing what to look for and knowing what I want to do with it if I find it.  Just knowing something is academia/liberalism.  Applied knowledge is conservatism.

I bet that LHC lumbers along for another 5 years and is eventually abandoned as being not cost effective.  Too many poor people will not want to hear about the daily cost of running the LHC experiment to "knowhere".  I might be the only person on the planet who thinks this is possible but these are the kinds of changes in social mood that will occur as the fake prosperity of a pump and dump money supply wanes and then evaporates.  There are just too many people living off the backs of the dwindling producers.