Sunday, January 31, 2016

[WMT] update, the party is nearly over.

Here is the backlink but what you should really do with your time is go read my EW-driven short term trading bottoming call here.  Why should you do that?  Simply because I had been very, very negative about WMT leading into the recent collapse and then suddenly out of the blue in that bottoming call post I think the shares are good for a long side trade.

I mean, who in the Hell does that?  Who do you know on TV or anywhere else that has any confidence in making countertrend trading calls like that?

In short, nobody does it except EW analysts.  Everyone else tells you to run away if they think the shares will eventually go lower.  And they certainly don't tell you, yeah, buy this dying stock here at $57 and sell in the $68 ish region.  With calls like this they should be inviting me onto financial TV shows but hey, gotta have Jim the Clown Cramer in there, right? We now have bread and circus and what would circus be without a clown?

Why am I saying all this? Well, since I remain mostly anonymous at this point the main reason I say it like this is to get your attention so that I can make a very strong point:  WMT is peaking at its predicted price level at the same time that the DJIA is testing the underside of the top rail of the expanding wedge.

Well, maybe it is just a coincidence but you know I just don't believe in them.  I believe when a confluence of things point in a certain direction that you should begin to believe that they mean something.  If the fuel gauge on your car is pointing at "E", maybe that sudden onset of subtle hesitation and jerkiness in the car's operation should be taken as a sign that the fuel gauge isn't broken... 

In any case, my near term count for WMT is below.  The time for being long these shares has come and gone. 

Folks, the next move down in WMT will likely be rapid and catastrophic because it is, as I believe the entire DJIA is, entering a 3rd wave down.  Not because of the news or because of the so called fundamentals but only because it fits the wave count model that I gave long before which I reproduced below.  I modeled that red 1 would bottom in the low $50s and then it did.  Then I modeled that red 2 would bounce to around the level of the prior 4th and so here we are again at $66.36 which is just shy of that level. 

The odds indicate that the winning play is to hedge M+M longs with UVXY real soon now...

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