[VNR] update

If my USO model is correct it is difficult to see how VNR will get all the way down to the bottom of the channel as suggested by the model in the backlink.   I mean, that is a heck of a percentage loss per unit time there so it is possible my count is off by one wave and that that we are looking at a series of higher lows and higher highs unfold.  Here.  The divvy on this is more than 13% now and that has GOT to look tempting to money managers who are having a hard time finding investments that pay more than a few measly percent. 



USO looks ready to bottom tomorrow and then begin the reversal on Friday.  Or perhaps it will take until Friday to finish off the sell fest in USO and then Monday could begin the reversal. 

In any case, the alternate chart for VNR is looking better and better and it is shown below.  I think that when it blows back up through the centerline then that will be a strong buy signal.  You can see how it has bounced down, down, broke down under, back tested from below since Sept.  That line has meaning to the herd even if we don't know how it was established.  The herd is showing us through its actions that this line has meaning.

Well I am personally hoping for a final collapse of VNR down to the $2 range per above even though I gauge the model below to be more likely at this point.  VNR @ $2 is the 17-18% divvy that I mentioned a couple posts ago as likely being the point at which investors think it is worth the risk.  After all, it just got downgraded and it just got the divvy cut and so it is unlikely for either of those to happen again soon.