[UVXY] update

At the backlink I provided the model below along with the specific commentary, "If I weren't so heavily long on metals and oil services, I would consider a short sale here of UVXY because the stop loss level is so clearly defined.  This model should not allow UVXY to break above the top rail here."



Below is the current actual.  While the herd can always change its course in real time, today's 7% gain in UVXY has all the hallmarks of a 3 wave retracement to the level of the prior 4th.  We also know that busting down that lower rail will take some force and so we should expect that it would take a 3rd or C to make that happen.  At today's close, the chart has been set up to smash that lower rail as wave 3 or C plays out.

For now I will assume that this will end up being a gap fill as shown and then a reversal upward.  There are many reasons why I think this will happen but the most important ones I consider to be personal proprietary trading secrets and thus will not share.  Time will tell how this pans out.

While If UVXY sells off like this then I would expect USO and all things oil to rally strongly during this time.