Code red on [ABX]

In the backlink and many charts leading up to it I have been clear about what to look for to know if this ABX chart has one more wave down.  It always centered on whether that downsloping blue line held or not and what the character of the breakout would be if the chart were to break out here.  I wrote, "The current chart is still slowly marching toward resistance.  I think if it is going to go the blue path that it will have to involve a gap breakout in order to send the message crisply to the herd.  Buy the first pullback if you see a gap up."



Now check out out today's action below.  We got a gap up above the top rail of the supposed HT which then powered up above the falling blue trend line.  Taking both of these out in one fell swoop and with gusto is likely a 3rd wave signature.  So the primary model is now per the red chart but I also cannot rule out a 5 wave move down per the blue in order to create a failed 5th (thus counting the current blue 5 as blue W3).  But we do not have 5 waves up off the bottom yet so I would not do anything too long term here.  I will sell NUGT when ABX is pushing $9.50 and then require the M+M to prove to me it was not a head fake by pulling back a-b-c and then making a higher high before I become a true believer.

I model USO as also being very near an important bottom as well.