[GDX] update

Avi got an article published today which is already a bit dated but you can read it here.  Essentially he was hoping for a quick end to this bear but his trigger level of $13.90 was already tripped:"As long as the GDX remains below 13.90, we have an impulsive structure in place to head down below 12.  While the set-up is not ideal, since it relies upon a leading diagonal down for wave (i), I still have to recognize the potential as long as we remain below 13.90.  But, if we take out 13.90 resistance, then it opens the door to a more protracted corrective rally before the final lows are struck."
 
Backlink model is below.  It clearly points us to look at that down sloping top rail.  I know that Avi is Hell bent on seeing one more wave lower and in fact that is still my primary path but I am also open to the possibility that the recent low (green a) might have been the low.  So I am not blindly assuming that we must have a lower low per the red path.  I think we have to also be watching that top rail very carefully for signs of breakout; something that Avi's article seems to be completely dismissing.



The current snapshot and model softens up the GDX picture as well.  I think that a bottom mid channel is also appropriate to look for and just to keep it top of mind I'm making it the new red model.

For now.

On thing though: if this stalls at the upper rail then I would GTFO and wait to see if it can gap up and out before getting back in. Rather lose a few percent of upside in the new bull than eat 20-40% downside in the dying bear.