[VNR] update

At the backlink  I provided the model below.  It shows VNR at @.70 and then suspects a little more downward movement that eventually reverses upward dramatically taking out the center tine as shown.




At today's price of $2.66 the chart is still following the higher level model above but I also see the alternate models below as being possible.  Tuesday's trade should give us more clarity here but I must say that VNR just slashed the common divvy dramatically yet still at these prices it is a very tasty 13.5%. 

Of course, such a high divvy is hardly worth considering, right?  After all, natural resources are all going to deflate to zero according to the people who never even thought deflation was possible until it slapped them upside their ignorant noggins. 

I've been a staunch deflationist for years but I also know that deflation never lasts forever, especially with a fake money supply.  Sooner or later some kind of loss of confidence in the issuing authorities is going to occur and then that special kind of inflation - that which is driven not by money printing but rather by loss of confidence in the fake money is going to occur.  The 5 wave down move in VOM is going to bottom and then it is going to reverse upward.   Commodities will have their day again since nobody can live without them.

If VNR falls to the $2 level per the alternate models below, the divvy is going to be pushing 18%.  Yes, it can be slashed again but you would hope that VNR mgt has already thrown the kitchen sink into the bad news.  For 18% on an investment grade play which just did a bunch of refis to reduce default risk I think that fixed income is going to come back into this one as soon as commodity prices stabilize.  I think a bounce is coming to the price of crude which will exceed $50 and perhaps even hit $60.  I wonder what that would do to VNR...