Saturday, January 30, 2016

[GDX] update

In the backlink we were on the way down still and I was targeting a bottom at $13.20.  My comment with the chart, which is reproduced below, was "Just looks like some kind of triangle is forming.  If you are not in this I would just stay on the sidelines until we get more clarity."

The chart decided to make a new low which I am now calling the bottom of the 2011 gold bear.  We are now attacking that upper rail again and I think the odds are now quite strong that in the next couple trading days we will see a gap up above that line which will signal the breakout.

The big picture take away is that blue 4 peaked in June of 2014 and since then we have been sliding downward in a falling wedge.  The 5th wave of it bottomed min channel which is, as explained in these pages on many occasions, not at all uncommon.  The odds heavily favor a breakout within the red circle.  The breakout should come with a gap up this time in order to provide clear indication that the herd is committed to a major turn north.

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