[$COMPX] update

In the backlink I was disagreeing with Avi and EWI in their views that the next wave up would be bullish.  My primary model was per the red path below.




I viewed that falling blue line as important support.  The herd did break out of that momentarily but then the Chinese stock market began acting up and it quickly not only reversed downward but did so only after creating a perfect right hand shoulder.  Additionally, the break down took out not only that falling blue support line (it became support after it was broken out of) but also the rising blue line of the lower parallel channel (see below).  Additionally, it did both of these "with gusto" and in fact in one fell swoop with a nasty gap down. 

The neckline then broke down at the red arrow and is now backtesting at the blue.  If that neckline cannot hold, and after that gap down I do not think it will be able to, it should lead to a further significant loss on the on the $COMPX over the next week or two.  That H+S neckline is now a critical support/resistance trend line and my view is that further negativity awaits.