Tuesday, February 9, 2016

[WFC] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.




So, how'd this model do?  Well, as you can see from below, the model has been largely correct.  The shares were called as topping a bit early at $54.75 vs actual top at $56 and small change.  But now I'm starting to wonder whether the predicted "collapse" might be over or nearly so.

EWI is going on and on about the next big wave down coming.  We all know it is possible but they have their blinders on (again) and are not doing a good job of considering the alternatives.  Avi has admitted that wave 3 is done and this is wave 4.  Pretty soon one of them has to be wrong and one of them has to be right.  They were both thinking that a 5th wave up was coming when I in fact am on record disagreeing with both of them in the blue 2/B timeframe.

If the banksters are going to find support, it should be here at the 38.2 fib where the chart is almost making parallel lines and where it looks like 5 waves down into blue 3/C (or 1 of 3) have completed.   Avi has said for a long time that the move up in GLD would be accompanied by the 5th wave up in stocks.  GLD has already turned up and so I suspect that the real beneficiary of the coming move will be OIL and OIL SERVICES.  It's time for my reader to be focusing on both of those beaten to Hell sectors.  Buy the dip in gold miners and keep a close eye on USO for a bottom which I think will be here with 1-2 weeks assuming it does not turn into a 4th wave HT which would extend the time for the bottom to be put in.



For now I'm siding with Avi on both GLD and on this being a 4th wave for stocks.  If we get a lower low than the recent unicorn tail low then this has to be rethought.  I'm out of UVXY for now but am still holding my 2017 mcd $87 puts at a profit.  MCD needs to turn down very sharply in the next 1-2 days in order for me to keep these puts.

If WFC gets one more big wave up as shown then it should certainly be shorted to Hell because the formation circled in red is suggesting that something very bad comes next.   I interpret that mess as a GOE and in my growing experience with this formation, it works like a HT meaning it is penultimate.

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