Tuesday, February 16, 2016

[UUP] update

In the backlink I was waiting for wave 4 to finish and wave 5 to begin.



The exact form of the model has changed into what is starting to look like a horizontal triangle.   I still think wave 4 is in progress here.  The recent rally in gold corresponded with the November peak of the dollar and has been violently fueled as the dollar waned.  If these two asset classes are back in synch again then the next dollar rally could bring golden pain.

Use stops on your M+M positions, folks.  Don't be like the idiot article writer who called gold a pet rock.  By that I don't mean you have to be bullish, I mean that you shouldn't be emotional and have your mind made up without carefully considering the EW chart current data.  It will not surprise me to see gold make a lower low, or to at least put in a double bottom as the dollar goes up into black 5.  The market is just as likely to make fools of those who are bullish and blind on gold as it has the writer of the pet rocks article.

But do here this: if gold and the dollar are trading in opposition here, the next peak in the dollar should bring serious gains to gold (and especially miners who will have gotten beaten up again at that point).

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