Monday, February 29, 2016

[IBB] update

At the backlink I provided the chart below and suggested that people continue to treat IBB as an indicator of social mood.

The action since then was suggestive of the model if not an exact match.  One could count the structure pointed to by the red arrow as a HT and if that is the case then this pullback, when it finished bottoming (it looks to be a in 4th of 3 or 4th of C)  could count as an a-b-c to the level of the prior 4th.  I would be careful of accepting this structure as a B wave HT because the internal count is ambiguous as to whether it is 3-3-3-3-3.  I think there is a 60% chance that it is a false HT.  Still, in order to sell the illusion (if it is an illusion) there will have to be a bounce at the 50fib so I would be a buyer of this at that point just in case the HT was B and the coming bottom would therefore be C of Avi's 4th wave.

Of course, if this blows through the 50 fib accompanied by a collapsing DJIA and S+P and $COMPX then of course all bets are off and the HTB was probably false.

Do note that the chart fell through the 38.2 fib and recently back tested from below in 3 waves.  I think that the 38.2 holds as resistance here and the 50 is the first likely opportunity for support.

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