Staying sane on [GLD]

Models are great and everything but if you are smart you will never buy wholeheartedly into them without getting at least some kind of confirmation and we do not yet have that on GLD.  In fact, silver is lagging and that could possibly turn into a bearish non-confirmation unless it begins to play catch up real damned soon.

So if the bottom isn't already in, what's the alternate model?

I think Avi provided a reasonable alternate count in this article from Feb 2nd and it contained the chart below which I then zoomed in on and added the red model lines to.  Bottom line for traders: party on until the chart nears the top falling parallel rail and then realize that many pros will be getting leery and scary.




With that said, I still tell my non trading friends and family to continue cost averaging into the sector, avoiding things like JNUG or NUGT or anything with time value it it and just keep cost averaging into this instead of contributing to a 401k where gold miners are difficult to find as an investment class and where the government essentially owns your a$$.