[JNUG] update

At the backlink I provided the model below which was in essence a call for a near term trading peak and then to buy the dip on JNUG. The model that supported this view is below.


Turns out that that wave was not 5 of 1 but rather part of wave 3.  It can be really difficult to get an accurate count on a new trend change.  I got stopped out and then the wave very quick reversed to a new high to let me know my count was bust.


Fast forward to today, it looks like blue 1 completed mid channel and now the wave is back testing from above the lower rail of what would have been a HT.  Yes the herd knows that old resistance line is now support.  I see today's action as a vee 2nd meaning we should get a sideways 4th later on.  It's no surprise that this stopped mid channel. The pull back no only tests the lower rail from above but it also fills the gap.  The odds suggest a strong upward reversal starting tomorrow. It should be a 3rd or C wave up and so I think being in JNUG is a good thing right now.

Note that I was trading NUGT early in the turn because it represents triple of regular miners whereas JNUG should be the trade right now because now that people are waking up to gold the juniors will likely move faster per unit time.  As always we can dip a bit deeper into wave 2 with the first option being the 38.2 and the second being the 50 fib.  But at this point I am modeling that the lower rail will hold as support.

The character of the the wave over the next couple days might give us more info here.  If it is in fact a 3rd as I think it should be, the wave should move quickly and possibly experience gaps up, especially when it comes to the upper rail.  That should definitely take a 3rd wave to bust out of...