Friday, February 5, 2016

[MCD] at critical juncture

In the backlink I provided my primary model as per below.  Essentially it suggested that a very rapid drop would be coming soon:



Current actual is below and as you can see the model was surprisingly accurate.  No matter how many times I see this I am always impressed by the power of a properly interpreted EW.

In any case, the action over the past few days could be a-b-c or it could be 1-2-3.   A lower low on Monday would strongly suggest that 5 of 1 is playing out and not just a-b-c.  A move back up above 119 starts to tilt the odds the other way.  My primary model is strongly that this is only wave 3 of 1 and my MCD jan 2017 87.5 puts are up 70% already because I think the market knows it too.  I was going to get the $70 puts but then the owl model got killed by the blue alternate model and I found that I could then get the 87.5 puts for the same money as the 80s were going for before.  I paid a buck fifty.


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