[ORIG] update

Ocean Rig did not get off with an inverted owl as I had hoped it would in the backlink.  Those counting on that model should have placed stops at just below the left ear.




If you are trapped in the shares then you might not like what I have to share but I don't make up the data, I just interpret it and report on it.  So it looks like Ocean Rig has to put up with a another 20% loss before hitting rock bottom.  But don't freak out about this because that will simply mean it is trading at leverage with USO and once USO puts in its next wave down I expect it to more than double into 2016.  That will do a serious number on the short sellers that are swarming ORIG right now because one of their customers sent them a letter of material breach of contract recently in a bid to bail out on their drilling contract early.  It's a shitty move IMO but these things happen in times of desperation and in fact they are a sign of the times.

But keep in mind, Ocean Rig has not been losing money.   So this is not a company on the verge of BK even though the market is treating it like that.

One whiff and I mean just one strong whiff of good news will send this up 20-30% in one day.  These prices are not real and they are not permanent.

Now, would I go "all in" on ORIG?  HELL NO!!  There are too many other plays that can be just as profitable.  But will I buy a significant amount of the shares if we see 75-80 cents?  Yes, I will.  And then I will use stops.