As you can see, the model looks pretty good at this point. However, the herd has two options here. It can either go sideways and create red 4 and then drop off one more time into red 5 OR it can start to move up strongly tomorrow. Those are the most likely two. It can of course also dip hard lower down into the low 7s in order to finish off blue 5. If you see one more motive wave down tomorrow to that range, that's a buy signal.
Having said that, it would almost be too easy. By far the more tricky thing to do would be to gap up at the open tomorrow and then eventually trade above red 1 of blue 4. IF this is happening then beware because the rally is likely going to be an expanded flat into blue 4'. At this point the oil market traders are exhausted and each barrel of oil delivered to the market consists of 50% crude oil and 50% blood of oil traders. It has been an historic wipe out. But we are set to see some relief within a week. The relief will likely either be 5 waves up into 4' or it will be the start of a very significant run up, perhaps even a new bull market.
No, oil is not dead. The excesses are being wrung out right now and the survivors will represent generational values. As Conquer the Crash told us back in 2002: deflation will cause $19 companies to trade for 50 cents.
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