Monday, February 29, 2016

[S+P500] update

In the S+P500 backlink I posted the chart below.

While we did get a sizable pullback in line with the chart above, I have to agree with Avi that the bears need this chart to begin heading down very quickly lest the odds move away from them rapidly. This is what many bulls probably see.

But that last move down is not 5 of C because its 4th would overlap its 1st.  So it is most likely something else, including the possibility of the model below.

A move above 1965 targets 1992 but a move below 1922 pushes odds more bearish.  It's really a tug of war between the Avi model and the EWI model at this point.  The only sector that hasn't rallied is oil and gas so that is where I would rather spend most of my time than shorting / UVXY. But it pays to do a gut check on the short side every couple days at least.

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