Monday, October 3, 2016

Markets are ripe for a miscalculation.

The federal reserve is now like an Indy car racer.  It is trying to run a race at the extremes.  If it doesn't go as fast as possible it will lose the race and then all Hell will break loose.  So it continues speeding around the track thinking carefully about its every move and knowing that any miscalculation will result in a fiery crash into the stands.

All I can say is that the longer an Indy car racer is in the game, the higher the odds are that he will get hurt or killed.  The problem for the fed is that the race can never stop.  They have get more and more creative about what they do and say lest the people figure out that it is a debt Ponzi that can have no good end.

A good example of living near the edge is outlined in a Goldman Sach's report from mid year.  They conclude that if rates go up by just 1% in an unexpected way then $1 trillion dollars worth of paper value will evaporate.  They use this fact to warn the fed not to move too quickly with its rate hikes.  But what these people don't tell you is that the market controls the interest rates, not the fed.  If nobody shows up at the bond auction to buy bonds with a 0.25% interest rate then the only way to sell these bonds is to sweeten the pot with more interest.  At some point bondholders are going to worry about being bagholders and they will demand more interest in order to compensate them for this risk.  That is how interest rates will go up next time, not because the fed wants to control them upward.

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